In this study, the efficiency of the company's value chain was measured using the stochastic frontier function, and then the effect of intellectual capital on value chain efficiency, cash flows, and bankruptcy risk was examined. Although the statistical population of the study included all companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange, 142 companies were selected as the statistical sample, and their data were analyzed over an 11-year period (2013-2023). The research hypotheses were tested using structural equation modeling with the SmartPLS software. The findings indicated that, at the 95% confidence level, the company's intellectual capital has a positive effect on value chain efficiency and cash flows, but a negative effect on bankruptcy risk. On the other hand, value chain efficiency increases cash flows while reducing bankruptcy risk.

Introduction

In today's complex and modern economic environment, companies can gain a competitive advantage by optimally utilizing not only tangible assets but also the knowledge, experience, and capabilities of their employees. Firms with higher intellectual capital can adopt favorable strategies to achieve success by leveraging all available resources, thereby enhancing performance and attaining sustainable operational performance. The value-added intellectual coefficient model, which measures the efficiency of intellectual capital, comprises three components: human capital efficiency, structural capital efficiency, and capital employed efficiency. By investing in human capital development, a company can improve the efficiency of its value chain through increased workforce productivity and effectiveness. Similarly, investing in structural capital can enhance value chain efficiency by streamlining processes, reducing waste, and improving communication and collaboration. Moreover, investment in intellectual capital development typically leads to increased returns and value creation, thereby improving the overall quality of the value chain. Based on this, the efficiency of the company's value chain was assessed using stochastic frontier analysis. Subsequently, the impact of intellectual capital on value chain efficiency, cash flows, and bankruptcy risk was examined.

Methodology

Although the research population included all companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange, a sample of 142 companies was selected due to limitations in obtaining reliable results. Data from these companies were analyzed over an 11-year period (2013–2023). The research hypotheses were tested using structural equation modeling (SEM) with the SmartPLS software. SEM enables researchers to explore complex relationships among multiple variables simultaneously (Hair et al., 2017). According to the existing literature, companies with higher intellectual capital are expected to perform better across the value chain by leveraging both tangible and intangible assets, resulting in improved cash flows and reduced bankruptcy risk. Additionally, effective value creation throughout the value chain is expected to lower bankruptcy risk and enhance cash flows. Based on this framework, the research proposed the following hypotheses:
Hypothesis 1: The company's intellectual capital has a significant positive effect on the efficiency of its value chain.
Hypothesis 2: The company's intellectual capital has a significant negative effect on its bankruptcy risk.
Hypothesis 3: The company's intellectual capital has a significant positive effect on its cash flows.
Hypothesis 4: The company's value chain efficiency has a significant negative effect on its bankruptcy risk.
Hypothesis 5: The company's value chain efficiency has a significant positive effect on its cash flows.

Results

The research findings, at a 95% confidence level, revealed that intellectual capital positively influences value chain efficiency and cash flows, while negatively affecting bankruptcy risk. Furthermore, value chain efficiency enhances cash flows and reduces the likelihood of bankruptcy. The highest path coefficient is associated with the impact of intellectual capital on the company's cash flows. The impact of intellectual capital on cash flows is greater than the impact of intellectual capital on value chain efficiency, and the impact of value chain efficiency on cash flows. In explaining the possible reasons, it can be stated that intellectual capital can affect the value chain by improving the efficiency and effectiveness of activities. Specifically, it can lead to more efficient production of goods or services, reduce costs, and improve the overall performance of the value chain; however, the relationship between intellectual capital and value chain efficiency may be influenced by the industry and context in which the company operates. In addition, intellectual capital allows companies to create greater value for customers, resulting in increased sales and revenue and, consequently, stronger cash flows. By improving transparency and reducing information asymmetry, intellectual capital disclosure enhances investor confidence and lowers the cost of equity, which ultimately boosts net cash flows. In explaining the relatively lower magnitude of the path coefficient between intellectual capital and bankruptcy risk compared to that between intellectual capital and cash flows (regardless of the direction of the relationship), it can be argued that well-developed intellectual capital enhances value chain efficiency and shareholder value, thereby increasing sales and operating income. Nevertheless, innovation derived from intellectual capital does not always guarantee a competitive advantage, as it may be influenced by factors such as industry type, economic sanctions, macroeconomic conditions, and market competition.

Discussion & Conclusion

The results further confirmed that intellectual capital significantly improves value chain efficiency. In other words, companies that effectively utilize all dimensions of intellectual capital—structural, human, physical, and financial—exhibit better overall performance across the value chain. These companies also experience higher and more stable cash flows. These findings align with the results of previous studies by Ghayouri-Moghaddam et al. (2012), D'Amato (2021), and Akpinar (2017). Moreover, companies with higher intellectual capital were found to have a lower bankruptcy risk, supporting the conclusions of Festa et al. (2021), Rasheed (2023), and Mollabashi and Sendani (2014), while differing from those of Bakshani (2014). In addition to the above results, the research findings showed that the efficiency of the company's value chain has a significant positive effect on cash flows and a negative effect on bankruptcy risk, which is consistent with the findings of Sun and Cui (2012) and Akpinar (2017). The results of the study expand the literature on the role of corporate capital dimensions, especially non-physical capital, in the synergy of the company's value chain components and its competitive advantage. On the other hand, the results of the study can be useful for decision-making and planning by company managers, analysts, and consultants in the stock market, as well as investors, shareholders, and government policymakers. In this regard, an index called the value chain efficiency rating, which covers the company's overall performance during various operational and support stages, should be considered by analysts and investors in fundamental stock analysis to enable more accurate estimation of stock intrinsic value. Given the positive and significant impact of intellectual capital on cash flows, it is recommended that managers and consultants consider the company's intangible assets and intellectual capital as factors affecting investment decisions in capital budgeting. It is also recommended that legislators specify the permitted and recommended methods for evaluating companies' intellectual capital so that a more accurate and standardized basis for their evaluation is available. In addition, because some listed companies have foreign exchange income, and given the severe exchange rate volatility in Iran and the high inflation rate, analysts and capital market participants should separate the company's actual financial performance from inflationary financial figures so that the company's intellectual capital can be evaluated more accurately.