نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

• ساره محسن ¹
• نرگس حمیدیان ²
• سید عباس هاشمی ³

¹ دانشجوی دکتری حسابداری، دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصاد، دانشگاه‌اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران

² استادیار حسابداری، دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصاد، دانشگاه اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران.

³ دانشیار حسابداری، دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصاد، دانشگاه اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران.

چکیده

ریسک سقوط قیمت سهام که به‌عنوان یک رخداد نامطلوب تعریف می‌شود، پدیده‌ای همه‌گیر در سطح بازار است. بدین معنی که کاهش قیمت سهام تنها به یک سهام خاص منحصر نمی‌شود، بلکه تمام سهام موجود در بازار را شامل می‌شود. سقوط قیمت سهام منجر به متضرر شدن سهامداران و سرمایه‌گذاران و همچنین افت بازار سرمایه می‌گردد، ازاین‌رو توجه به عوامل مؤثر بر این پدیده از اهمیت بسزایی برخوردار است. هدف پژوهش حاضر بررسی تأثیر نوسان جریان‌های نقد عملیاتی صنعت بر ریسک سقوط آتی قیمت سهام با در نظر گرفتن عدم قطعیت سیاست اقتصادی و محافظه‌کاری شرطی در شرکت‌های پذیرفته‌شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران است. در این راستا تعداد 136 شرکت در دوره زمانی 1391 تا 1401 به روش غربالگری انتخاب شدند. برای تجزیه‌وتحلیل داده‌ها و آزمون فرضیه‌ها از روش تحلیل رگرسیون و داده‌های تابلویی استفاده شده است. نتایج پژوهش نشان می‌دهد نوسان جریان­های نقد عملیاتی صنعت بر ریسک سقوط آتی قیمت سهام تأثیر مثبت و معناداری دارد. علاوه بر این، عدم قطعیت سیاست اقتصادی تأثیر مثبت نوسانات جریان نقد عملیاتی صنعت را بر ریسک سقوط آتی قیمت سهام را تشدید می‌کند و محافظه‌کاری شرطی حسابداری تأثیر مثبت نوسان جریان‌های نقد عملیاتی صنعت بر ریسک سقوط آتی قیمت سهام را تضعیف می­کند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

• نوسان جریان‌های‌ نقد عملیاتی
• ریسک سقوط قیمت سهام
• محافظهکاری شرطی حسابداری
• عدم قطعیت سیاست اقتصادی

موضوعات

• بازده سهام
• حسابداری مالی
• نقدینگی

عنوان مقاله [English]

The Effect of Industry Operating Cash Flow Volatility on Stock Price Crash Risk: The Moderating Role of Economic Policy Uncertainty and Conditional Conservatism

نویسندگان [English]

• Sarah Mohsin ¹
• Narges Hamidian ²
• Seyed Abbas Hashemi ³

¹ Ph.D. Student of Accounting, Faculty of Administrative Sciences and Economics, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran

² Assistant Professor of Accounting, Faculty of Administrative Sciences and Economics, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran

³ Associate Professor of Accounting, Faculty of Administrative Sciences and Economics, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran

چکیده [English]

Stock price crash risk, defined as an adverse event, is a pervasive phenomenon at the market level. This implies that the
Stock price crash risk, defined as an adverse event, is a pervasive phenomenon at the market level. This implies that the decline in stock prices is not limited to a specific stock but extends across the entire market. Stock price crashes result in significant losses for shareholders and investors, as well as a decline in the overall capital market. Hence, understanding the factors influencing this phenomenon is of critical importance. The present study aims to investigate the impact of industry operating cash flow volatility on future stock price crash risk, considering the roles of economic policy uncertainty and conditional conservatism in companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. A sample of 136 companies was selected using a screening method over the period from 2012 to 2022. To analyze the data and test the hypotheses, regression analysis and panel data techniques were employed. The findings indicate that industry operating cash flow volatility has a positive and significant effect on future stock price crash risk. Furthermore, economic policy uncertainty amplifies the positive effect of industry operating cash flow volatility on stock price crash risk. Conversely, conditional conservatism in accounting mitigates the positive relationship between operating cash flow volatility and future stock price crash risk.
 

Introduction

The expansion of the capital market is a cornerstone of economic growth and development for any country. A critical driver in advancing this sector is fostering active investor participation. To this end, ensuring transparency and providing access to relevant information for evaluating optimal investment opportunities, while considering the risk-return profile of various stocks, are essential for capital market participants. Among the risks faced by the capital market, stock price crash risk stands out as a significant concern. This risk, defined as a sharp and widespread decline in stock prices across the market, transcends individual stocks and affects the market as a whole. The implications of such crashes are profound, leading to substantial losses for shareholders and investors and potentially undermining the overall stability of the capital market. Consequently, identifying and understanding the factors that contribute to this phenomenon is of paramount importance. This study seeks to examine the effect of industry operating cash flow volatility on the future risk of stock price crashes. Furthermore, it incorporates the moderating roles of economic policy uncertainty and conditional conservatism in companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange.

Literature Review

The existing literature suggests that stock price crashes result from efforts to conceal negative information within companies. This conclusion is based on the principal-agent theory by Jine and Myers (2006), which posits that management, having control over the flow of information, is motivated to withhold information, often negative, for various reasons over the long term.
One of the factors contributing to stock price crash risk is the volatility of operating cash flows (Wang et al., 2022). Stable operating cash flows are a critical component of a company’s healthy and sustainable operations (Sun and Ding, 2020). Companies experiencing high volatility in operating cash flows typically have fewer cash reserves available for operational needs and are more reliant on external financing. For such companies, financing costs are higher, which, in turn, reduces their overall value (Chen and Huberman, 2014). It is essential to consider that external factors, such as macroeconomic and industry-specific conditions, significantly influence corporate decision-making. Management tends to believe that an increase in industry-level operating cash flow volatility exposes the company to a more uncertain external environment. As this volatility rises, capital market participants pay closer attention to the market, leading to a greater impact of negative information disclosures on the company’s future operations and financing decisions. Consequently, management becomes more inclined to conceal negative information, thereby increasing the risk of future stock price crashes.
Moreover, heightened economic policy uncertainty exacerbates corporate policy risks, further incentivizing management to hide adverse news and information, which, in turn, increases the risk of stock price crashes (Luo & Zhang, 2020). Additionally, conditional conservatism practices counteract managerial tendencies and motivations to conceal negative information, thereby reducing the likelihood of stock price crashes and mitigating investment risks in equities (Kim & Zhang, 2016). Conditional conservatism is expected to prevent the accumulation of bad news within the company, thus reducing the sudden release of substantial negative information into the market (Pourheidari et al., 2018). Consequently, higher levels of conditional conservatism are associated with a lower accumulation and concealment of bad news, ultimately reducing the risk of stock price crashes (Antonakakis et al., 2013). Based on the above, the research hypotheses are as follows:
Hypothesis 1: Industry operating cash flow volatility has a positive effect on future stock price crash risk.
Hypothesis 2: Economic policy uncertainty exacerbates the positive effect of industry operating cash flow volatility on future stock price crash risk.
Hypothesis 3: Conditional conservatism in accounting weakens the positive effect of industry operating cash flow volatility on future stock price crash risk.

Methodology

This study is categorized as applied research, as it aims to provide practical insights and solutions that can be directly implemented in real-world contexts. Methodologically, it adopts a descriptive-correlational approach, seeking to describe the characteristics of the variables under investigation and analyze the relationships among them. To achieve the research objectives, three hypotheses were formulated. These hypotheses examine the effects of industry operating cash flows volatility on future stock price crash risk, incorporating the moderating roles of economic policy uncertainty and conditional conservatism. The statistical sample consists of 136 companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange, observed over a ten-year period from 2012 to 2022. To analyze the data and test the hypotheses, regression analysis, panel data techniques, and Stata 15 software were utilized.

Results

The analysis of the first hypothesis demonstrates that industry operating cash flow volatility exerts a positive and significant effect on future stock price crash risk. This finding underscores the destabilizing influence of variability in cash flows from core business operations, which can signal underlying financial instability and heighten the likelihood of abrupt and severe declines in stock prices. The results of the second hypothesis indicate that economic policy uncertainty intensifies the positive relationship between industry operating cash flow volatility and future stock price crash risk. This suggests that in an environment characterized by heightened economic policy uncertainty, the risks associated with cash flow variability are magnified. Unpredictable policy conditions can create additional pressure on management to obscure negative information in an effort to sustain investor confidence, further exacerbating the risk of stock price crashes. Finally, the findings related to the third hypothesis reveal that conditional conservatism in accounting mitigates the positive effect of industry operating cash flow volatility on future stock price crash risk. Conditional conservatism, characterized by the timely recognition of potential losses and liabilities over gains, serves as a counterbalance to managerial tendencies to suppress unfavorable information. By enforcing stringent accounting standards, conditional conservatism enhances the transparency and reliability of financial reporting, thereby attenuating the impact of cash flow volatility on crash risk and fostering greater stability in the capital market.

Conclusion

This study examines the effect of industry operating cash flow volatility on future stock price crash risk, with a focus on the moderating roles of economic policy uncertainty and conditional conservatism in companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. The findings of the first hypothesis reveal that volatility in operating cash flows signals potential risks related to a company’s future operations, investments, and financial activities. Moreover, such volatility may incentivize management to withhold adverse information, thereby increasing the likelihood of future stock price crashes. The results of the second hypothesis suggest that elevated economic policy uncertainty intensifies the risks associated with firm policies, further motivating management to conceal unfavorable information. This heightened opacity exacerbates the probability of stock price crashes, reflecting the amplified impact of cash flow volatility under uncertain policy environments. In contrast, the findings of the third hypothesis indicate that conditional conservatism in accounting practices mitigates the positive relationship between operating cash flow volatility and future stock price crash risk. By emphasizing the timely recognition of losses and liabilities over gains, conditional conservatism acts as a counterbalance to managerial tendencies to suppress negative information, thereby reducing the impact of operating cash flow volatility on crash risk. These findings align with prior research by Wang et al. (2022), Lu Zhang (2020), and Kim and Zhang (2016), further validating the theoretical and empirical linkages among operating cash flow volatility, policy uncertainty, and conditional conservatism in mitigating stock price crash risk.
 
 
 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

• Conditional conservatism of Accounting
• Economic Policy Uncertainty
• Operating Cash Flow Volatility
• Stock Price Crash. Risk