نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

• محمدجواد سلیمی ¹
• قاسم بولو ²
• مقصود امیری ³
• حامد ذاکری ⁴

¹ استادیار گروه حسابداری، دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی، تهران، ایران

² دانشیار گروه حسابداری، دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران

³ استاد گروه مدیریت صنعتی ، دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی،تهران،ایران

⁴ دانشجوی دکتری رشته حسابداری، دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی، تهران، ایران

چکیده

گزارش پیش­ بینی سود به‌عنوان یکی از گزارش­ های مهم و مؤثر در تصمیم­ گیری سرمایه­ گذاران تلقی می‌شود. هدف از این مطالعه ارائه چارچوب گزارشگری پیش­ بینی سود در بازار سرمایه ایران است. برای دستیابی به هدف پژوهش، ابتدا با مطالعه مبانی نظری و پیشینه پژوهش و همچنین مصاحبه با 21 خبره به روش گلوله برفی و استفاده از روش تحلیل تم چارچوب گزارشگری پیش ­بینی سود شناسایی شد. سپس با اجرای روش دلفی فازی و نظرخواهی از 183 خبره با استفاده از پرسشنامه و روش نمونه‌گیری قضاوتی هدفمند چارچوب گزارشگری مورد اجماع قرار گرفت و چارچوب گزارشگری پیش­ بینی سود در بازار سرمایه ایران ارائه شد. جامعه آماری پژوهش، اعضا هیئت‌علمی دانشگاه، شاغلان در سازمان­های نظارتی، سرمایه­ گذاران، حسابرسان و تهیه­ کنندگان اطلاعات مالی بودند. نتایج پژوهش نشان داد که از 122 تم تفصیلی استخراج‌شده از طریق تحلیل تم در قالب 6 تم اصلی و 14 تم فرعی، 97 تم تفصیلی، اجماع گروه دلفی را کسب نمودند و به‌عنوان اجزای چارچوب گزارشگری پیش ­بینی سود شناسایی شدند. عناصر اصلی چارچوب گزارشگری پیش­ بینی سود عبارت است از کلیات، زمینه‌های محیطی، مشخصات، پیامدها، چالش­ ها و ارزیابی. یافته­ های این پژوهش می ­تواند راهنمای مناسبی جهت تدوین استانداردهای گزارشگری مالی و اصلاح رویه­ ها و مقررات باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

• پیش‌بینی سود
• گزارشگری مالی
• گزارشگری پیش‌بینی سود
• روش دلفی فازی

موضوعات

• گزارش های حسابداری

عنوان مقاله [English]

Presenting a Framework for Earnings Forecasts Reporting in the Iranian Capital Market

نویسندگان [English]

• Mohammad Javad Salimi ¹
• Ghassem blue ²
• Maghsoud Amiri ³
• Hamed Zakeri ⁴

¹ Assistant Professor, Department of Accounting, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran, Iran

² Associate Professor, Department of Accounting, Allameh Tabataba’i University, Tehran, Iran

³ Professor, Department of Industrial Management, Allameh Tabatab'i University, Tehran, Iran

⁴ Ph.D Student, Department of Accounting, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran, Iran

چکیده [English]

The earnings forecasts report is considered as one of the most important and effective reports in investors' decision-making. The purpose of this study is to present an earnings forecasts reporting framework in Iran's capital market. To achieve this research goal, the earnings forecasts reporting framework was identified first by studying the theoretical foundations and the background of the research, as well as interviewing 21 experts using the snowball method and the theme analysis method. Then, through the implementation of the fuzzy Delphi method and solicitation of opinions from 183 experts using a questionnaire and targeted judgmental sampling method, a consensus was reached on the reporting framework, resulting in the presentation of the earnings forecasts reporting framework in Iran's capital market. The research population included university faculty members, employees in regulatory organizations, investors, auditors, and providers of financial information. The research results showed that out of 122 detailed themes extracted through theme analysis, categorized into six main themes and 14 sub-themes, 97 detailed themes obtained the consensus among the Delphi group, thereby forming components of the earnings forecasts reporting framework. The main elements of the earnings forecasts reporting framework encompass generalities, environmental fields, characteristics, consequences, challenges, and evaluation. The findings of this research can serve as a guide for developing financial reporting standards and modifying procedures and regulations.

Introduction

The management forecasts earnings is one of the disclosed information outside the financial statements, which reflects the management's forecast about the future prospects. This report is one of the most important sources of information for companies in the capital market. Corporate management possesses considerable information advantages about contingencies related to future profitability. Management disclosures are considered a valuable and potential source of information for investors. Investors are interested in estimating the future benefits of their investment so that they can assess receiving future cash earnings as well as the value of their shares. Therefore, the expected earnings from companies are important for investors and beneficiaries to make investment decisions.
How to present the earnings forecast report has been a challenging issue in recent years. Therefore, in the current situation, examining the framework and reporting method of earnings forecasting in the Iranian capital market using the opinions of experts is regarded as an essential need.
Considering the importance of earnings forecast reporting for investors, the problem of the current research is: What is the earnings forecast reporting framework in Iran's capital market? Additionally, what are the components of this framework based on the country's economic and capital market conditions?

Literature Review

There are several reasons for disclosing the information of managers and publishing the earnings forecast report. One reason for this is agency theory, which refers to the conflict of interests between managers and owners. In addition, we can refer to the Signaling theory, Expectation adjustment hypothesis, and Legal liability hypothesis.
The primary framework of earnings forecasting reporting includes the purpose, users, limitations, environmental fields, characteristics, and consequences.
Hirst et al. (2008) provided a framework regarding management earnings forecasting. They categorized earnings forecasts into three components including antecedents, characteristics, and consequences. They concluded that earnings forecasting characteristics are less explored in both theoretical and empirical research, despite managers having the most control over this component.
Preussner and Aschauer (2022) synthesized the literature on management earnings forecasts and adaption mechanisms, combined existing theories into a unifying framework. Overall, the literature review provides strong support for a positive correlation between the extent and credibility of management earnings forecasts, on the one hand, and stock returns, share liquidity, and analyst coverage, on the other hand. Earnings forecasts tend to be optimistically biased, with a positive correlation with forecast uncertainty, earnings flexibility, financial distress, investor sentiment, and the share price dependency of managers' remuneration. Firm growth, legal liability, and litigation risk are significantly associated with forecast pessimism.
Until 2017, listed companies in Tehran Stock Exchange published an independent report titled earnings forecasts report. The Securities and Exchange Organization announced in a notification that since January 2018, the Issuers are not allowed to publish earnings forecasts report. Instead, they are required to prepare and disclose the management's interpretive report alongside the interim and annual financial statements. Recently, as of July 2021, the return of the earnings forecast report was announced with a new procedure for five industries.

Methodology

To achieve the goal of the research, the primary framework was first identified by studying the literature review and theoretical background. Semi-structured interviews were then conducted with 21 experts using the snowball sampling method. The data from the interview was analyzed using the theme analysis method and the earnings forecasts reporting framework was extracted according to the country's environmental characteristics. Finally, the fuzzy Delphi method was implemented and opinions were gathered from 183 experts through a questionnaire and targeted judgment sampling method to reach a consensus on the earnings forecasts reporting framework.
The statistical population of the research included university faculty members, employees in regulatory organizations, investors, auditors, and providers of financial information.

Results

The research results showed that out of 122 detailed themes extracted through theme analysis, which were categorized into 6 main themes and 14 sub-themes, 97 detailed themes obtained consensus from the Delphi group and were identified as components of the earnings forecasts reporting framework. The main themes of the framework are generalities, environmental fields, characteristics, consequences, challenges, and evaluation. Each main theme consists of sub-themes. For example, the generalities theme includes sub-themes such as purpose, users, and limitations. The environmental fields theme covers aspects related to the forecast environment and company characteristics. The characteristics theme encompasses the method of publishing, features, text of the report, and assurance. The consequences theme addresses the consequences of publishing and non-publishing. The challenges theme explores the challenges in the environment and the company. Lastly, the evaluation theme focuses on the evaluation of the disclosure procedure.

Discussion

The findings of this research can serve as a valuable guide for developing financial reporting standards and modifying procedures and regulations.
The paper has some limitations. The use of questionnaires, which is common in humanities research, is inherently limited, and this research is no exception. The time limitation, the diverse knowledge base of the experts, and their interest in the research topic may have influenced the quality of the experts' responses to the questionnaire.

Conclusion

This research has presented the earnings forecasts reporting framework in Iran's capital market, consisting of 6 main themes. The results of this study can help Iran's Accounting Standards Development Committee in developing standards. Furthermore, the Securities and Exchange Organization can use the framework, particularly for the evaluation theme to modify and present regulations related to earnings forecasting reporting. Additionally, investors can use the results of this research to enhance their understanding about the earnings forecast report and make more informed investment decisions. Issuers can also use the framework to improve information disclosure and prepare reports.
Acknowledgments
I am grateful to all the esteemed professors and experts who helped me in this way. I would also like to express my gratitude to the staff of Allameh Tabataba’i University for their cooperation.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

• earnings forecasts
• financial reporting
• earnings forecasts reporting
• fuzzy Delphi method