نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

• ماندانا طاهری ¹
• مظفر جمالیان پور ²
• مهدی نیک روش ³
• شیرین خوشنام ⁴

¹ استادیار گروه حسابداری، دانشکده مدیریت و حسابداری، دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی

² استادیارگروه حسابداری دانشکده حسابداری و مدیریت دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی

³ استادیار دانشکده مدیریت و حسابداری، دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی، تهران، ایران

⁴ کارشناسی ارشد حسابداری، دانشکده مدیریت و حسابداری، دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

این پژوهش به بررسی تأثیر مدیریت سود مبتنی بر تغییر طبقه‌بندی بر ریسک سقوط قیمت سهام پرداخته است. تغییر طبقه‌بندی با انتقال هزینه‌های عملیاتی به اقلام غیرعملیاتی، سود عملیاتی را بزرگ‌نمایی می‌کند بدون اینکه سود خالص تغییر کند، بنابراین ابزاری کم‌هزینه برای پنهان‌سازی اخبار منفی و افزایش احتمال سقوط قیمت سهام است. نمونه پژوهش شامل داده‌های مالی ۱۲۹ شرکت بورسی طی سال‌های ۱۳۹۱ تا ۱۴۰۲ است. برای سنجش ریسک سقوط از دو شاخص چولگی منفی بازده سهام و نوسان پایین‌به‌بالا استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد تغییر طبقه‌بندی با ریسک سقوط رابطه‌ای منفی و معنادار دارد. همچنین افزایش فاصله میان سود عملیاتی و سود خالص شدت این رابطه را کاهش می‌دهد. همچنین در این پژوهش صرف بررسی رابطه مستقیم بین تغییر طبقه‌بندی سود و ریسک سقوط قیمت سهام کافی تلقی نشد، زیرا شواهد نظری و تجربی نشان می‌دهد که اثر مدیریت سود بر واکنش بازار به‌شدت وابسته به شرایط اطلاعاتی و مالی شرکت است. بنابراین، برای دستیابی به درک عمیق‌تر از سازوکار این رابطه، متغیرهایی انتخاب شدند که می‌توانند شدت یا جهت اثر تغییر طبقه‌بندی بر ریسک سقوط را تعدیل کنند. بر این اساس نتایج نشان داد که نوسانات جریان نقدی و عدم تقارن اطلاعاتی تنها در روش چولگی منفی اثر مثبت بر ریسک سقوط داشته و رابطه اصلی را تضعیف می‌کنند، درحالی‌که ساختار سرمایه (اهرم مالی) نقش معناداری نداشت.

کلیدواژه‌ها

• مدیریت بر سود مبتنی بر تغییر طبقه‌بندی
• ریسک سقوط قیمت سهام
• عدم تقارن اطلاعاتی
• ساختار سرمایه
• نوسانات جریانات نقدی

موضوعات

• حسابداری مالی

عنوان مقاله [English]

Earnings Management via Classification Shifting and Stock Price Crash Risk

نویسندگان [English]

• mandana taheri ¹
• Mozaffar Jamalianpour ²
• Mahdi Nikravesh ³
• SHirin KHoshnam ⁴

¹ Assistant Professor, Faculty of management and accounting, University of Allameh Tabatabai

² Assistant Professor of Accounting in department of management and Accounting Allameh tabatabai university

³ Department of Accounting, Faculty of Management and Accounting, Allameh Tabatabai’ University, Tehran, Iran

⁴ M.A. Student, Department of Accounting, Faculty of Management & Accounting, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran, Iran.

چکیده [English]

Abstract

This study examines the effect of classification shifting–based earnings management on the risk of stock price crash. Classification shifting increases operating profit by reallocating operating expenses to non-operating items without altering net income, making it a low-cost tool for concealing negative performance news and thereby increasing crash risk. The sample consists of 129 listed companies over the period 2012–2023 (with additional data from 2007 for classification-shifting calculations). Crash risk is measured using negative return skewness and down-to-up volatility. The findings show that classification shifting has a significant negative relationship with crash risk in both measures, indicating a higher probability of crash when such shifting is used more extensively. Moreover, a larger gap between operating profit and net income weakens this negative relationship. Cash flow volatility and information asymmetry exhibit a positive effect on crash risk only under the negative skewness measure and weaken the main relationship, whereas financial leverage shows no significant effect.

Keywords: Reclassification-based earnings management, stock price crash risk, information asymmetry, cash flow volatility.



Introduction

Earnings management is used by managers to influence financial reports, creating a favorable short-term image but increasing long-term stock price crash risk. A less examined method is classification shifting, where operating expenses are moved to non-operating items to inflate operating income without affecting net income, making it difficult for investors to detect. First highlighted by McVay (2006), this method is influential because investors generally rely more on operating income than on net income.

Research shows that overstated operating earnings mislead investors and can raise crash risk. In Iran, although classification shifting has been introduced in prior studies, its effect on stock price crash risk has received limited attention. Weak auditor oversight, low implementation cost, and the lack of clear classification standards allow firms to improve the appearance of financial performance by reallocating income-statement items.This study investigates how classification shifting affects stock price crash risk among firms listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange and examines moderating factors such as information asymmetry, cash flow volatility, and capital structure. It presents the theoretical background, research models, and empirical results.



Methods & Material

The present study examines the relationship between earnings management through classification shifting and stock price crash risk, with the moderating role of information asymmetry, cash flow volatility, and capital structure. Accordingly, this research is descriptive–correlational in nature. In terms of purpose, it is an applied study. The required data include items from financial statements and the accompanying notes available in the “Rahavard Novin” comprehensive database and the comprehensive corporate information database on the official website of the Tehran Stock Exchange, which were extracted as needed. The collected data were organized using Excel in the form of data files, after which the relevant variables were calculated and ultimately analyzed using EViews software.

The statistical population of the study consists of all companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange during the years 2012 to 2023and the research sample includes 129 companies.



Findings

The results showed that classification shifting has a negative and significant relationship with stock price crash risk, meaning that greater use of this method increases the likelihood of a crash. Moreover, an increase in the gap between operating income and net income weakens the strength of this relationship. Cash flow volatility and information asymmetry have a positive effect on crash risk only when using the negative skewness measure, thereby weakening the main relationship, whereas capital structure (financial leverage) had no significant role.



Conclusion & Results

This study investigates the relationship between earnings management through classification shifting and stock price crash risk in the Iranian capital market, considering the moderating roles of cash flow volatility, capital structure, and information asymmetry. The results indicate that, unlike international studies, classification shifting in Iran has a negative and significant effect on crash risk, as managers primarily use it to smooth earnings and present a stable performance, rather than to hide bad news. The gap between operating and net income weakens this negative effect, as lower earnings quality reduces the credibility of reclassification signals. Cash flow volatility increases uncertainty and weakens the stabilizing effect of classification shifting, raising crash risk, whereas financial leverage shows no significant impact. Information asymmetry has a direct positive effect on crash risk but does not significantly moderate the relationship between classification shifting and crash risk. Overall, in the Iranian market, classification shifting functions as a stabilizing tool, smoothing earnings, reducing informational uncertainty, and lowering stock price crash risk, while cash flow volatility and low earnings quality can weaken its effectiveness.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

• Reclassification-based Earnings Management
• Information Asymmetry
• Cash Flow Volatility
• Capital Structure
• Stock Price Crash Risk