نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

• سید محمدامین فیاضی ¹
• مهدی نیک روش ²
• مجید فرحانی زاده ¹

¹ گروه حسابداری، دانشکده مدیریت و حسابداری، دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران.

² استادیار گروه حسابداری، دانشکده مدیریت و حسابداری، دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

این پژوهش با توجه به نقش فزاینده ویژگی‌های رفتاری مدیران در تصمیمات مالی و اهمیت ساختار مالکیت در شکل‌دهی به پیامدهای این ویژگی‌ها، به بررسی اثر بیش‌اطمینانی مدیرعامل بر تاب‌آوری شرکتی و نقش تعدیلی تمرکز مالکیت پرداخت. هدف اصلی پژوهش، آزمون اثر بیش‌اطمینانی مدیرعامل بر تاب‌آوری شرکتی و همچنین بررسی نقش تعدیل‌گری تمرکز مالکیت در این رابطه بود. پژوهش از نوع کاربردی و از نظر روش توصیفی–علی مبتنی بر داده‌های آرشیوی انجام شد. جامعه آماری شامل شرکت‌های پذیرفته‌شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران و فرابورس ایران برای سال‌های 1394 تا 1403 بود که پس از اعمال معیارهای غربالگری، تعداد 206 شرکت معادل 2,060 مشاهده سال-شرکت به عنوان نمونه نهایی انتخاب شد. بیش‌اطمینانی مدیریت با استفاده از سه سنجه مبتنی بر الگوهای سرمایه‌گذاری اندازه‌گیری و از طریق تحلیل عاملی به یک متغیر ترکیبی تبدیل شد. تمرکز مالکیت بر اساس درصد مالکیت سهامداران عمده سنجیده شد و تاب‌آوری با استفاده از شدت سقوط قیمت سهام اندازه‌گیری گردید. آزمون فرضیه‌ها با استفاده از مدل‌های رگرسیونی داده‌های تابلویی با کنترل اثرات سال و صنعت انجام شد. یافته‌ها نشان داد که بیش‌اطمینانی مدیریت به‌تنهایی اثر معناداری بر تاب‌آوری شرکتی نداشت، اما اثر تعاملی تمرکز مالکیت و بیش‌اطمینانی مدیرعامل معنادار بود. نتایج بیانگر آن بود که اثرگذاری بیش‌اطمینانی مدیرعامل بر تاب‌آوری شرکتی، وابسته به سطح تمرکز مالکیت بوده و این سازوکار مالکیتی می‌تواند نحوه بروز پیامدهای رفتاری مدیریت را شکل دهد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

• بیش‌اطمینانی مدیرعامل
• تاب‌آوری شرکتی
• حاکمیت شرکتی
• ساختار مالکیت
• تمرکز مالکیت

موضوعات

• بورس اوراق بهادار

عنوان مقاله [English]

The Effect of CEO Overconfidence on Corporate Resilience Considering the Moderating Role of Concentrated Ownership

نویسندگان [English]

• Seyed Mohammad Amin Fayazi ¹
• Mehdi Nikravesh ²
• Majid FarhaniZadeh ¹

¹ Department of accounting, School of management and accounting, Allameh Tabtaba'i University, Tehran, Iran.

² Assistant professor of accounting, School of management and accounting. Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran, Iran

چکیده [English]

This study, considering the growing role of managers’ behavioral characteristics in financial decisions and the importance of ownership structure in shaping the consequences of these characteristics, examined the effect of CEO overconfidence on corporate resilience and the moderating role of ownership concentration. The main objective of the study was to test the effect of CEO overconfidence on corporate resilience and also to examine the moderating role of ownership concentration in this relationship. The research was applied in nature and, in terms of method, was descriptive–causal based on archival data. The statistical population included companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange and Iran Fara Bourse during the years 2015 to 2024, from which, after applying screening criteria, 206 companies equivalent to 2,060 firm-year observations were selected as the final sample. Managerial overconfidence was measured using three proxies based on investment patterns and was converted into a composite variable through factor analysis. Ownership concentration was measured based on the percentage of shares held by major shareholders, and resilience was measured using stock price crash severity. The hypotheses were tested using panel data regression models with control for year and industry effects. The findings showed that managerial overconfidence alone had no significant effect on corporate resilience; however, the interaction effect of ownership concentration and CEO overconfidence was significant. The results indicated that the impact of CEO overconfidence on corporate resilience depended on the level of ownership concentration, and this ownership mechanism could shape the way managerial behavioral consequences manifest.



1. Introduction

This study examines the effect of CEO overconfidence on corporate resilience with emphasis on the moderating role of ownership concentration in firms listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange and Iran Fara Bourse. The research is motivated by the growing attention to managerial behavioral characteristics in financial decision-making and the importance of ownership structure in shaping corporate outcomes. The study seeks to determine whether CEO overconfidence directly influences corporate resilience and whether ownership concentration alters this relationship.

2. Literature Review

Prior studies indicate that CEO overconfidence influences corporate investment and financing behavior and may affect firm outcomes under uncertainty. However, empirical evidence suggests that the consequences of overconfidence are not uniform and may vary depending on organizational and structural conditions. Ownership concentration, as a key element of corporate structure, can influence managerial discretion and the monitoring environment within the firm. Accordingly, the relationship between CEO overconfidence and corporate resilience may depend on the level of ownership concentration. Based on this perspective, the research proposed the following hypotheses:

Hypothesis 1: CEO overconfidence has a significant effect on corporate resilience.

Hypothesis 2: Ownership concentration moderates the relationship between CEO overconfidence and corporate resilience.

3. Methodology

The study is applied in nature and adopts a descriptive–causal design based on archival data. The statistical population consists of all firms listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange and Iran Fara Bourse during the period 2015–2024. After applying screening criteria, including data availability, consistent fiscal year-end, and exclusion of financial institutions, the final sample includes 206 firms, resulting in 2,060 firm-year observations.

CEO overconfidence is measured using three investment-based proxies (OC-V, OC-AS, and OC-CAPEX). To avoid multiple separate estimations and to capture the common variation among these measures, factor analysis is used to construct a composite overconfidence variable. Ownership concentration is measured as the percentage of shares held by major shareholders. Corporate resilience is measured using stock price crash severity. The hypotheses are tested using panel data regression models with year and industry fixed effects. To examine the robustness of the findings, the models are re-estimated using each individual overconfidence proxy separately.

4. Results

The results show that CEO overconfidence does not have a statistically significant direct effect on corporate resilience. This finding is consistent across the main model using the composite overconfidence variable and the robustness tests using individual proxies.

The findings further indicate that the interaction term between ownership concentration and CEO overconfidence is statistically positive significant. This result suggests that the effect of CEO overconfidence on corporate resilience depends on the level of ownership concentration. The moderating role of ownership concentration remains generally stable across alternative specifications, supporting the robustness of the results.

5. Conclusion

The study concludes that CEO overconfidence alone does not explain variations in corporate resilience in the sampled firms. However, ownership concentration plays a positive significant moderating role in shaping how managerial overconfidence relates to corporate resilience. The findings indicate that the impact of managerial behavioral characteristics on firm outcomes is dependent on ownership structure. These results highlight the importance of considering ownership concentration when evaluating the consequences of CEO overconfidence for corporate resilience in the Iranian capital market.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

• CEO Overconfidence
• Corporate Governance
• Corporate Resilience
• Ownership Concentration
• Ownership Structure