Document Type : Research Paper
Authors
Abstract
Different information introduced to the market by the listed companies affect share prices in the capital market. Some are used for forecasting and estimation, so its credibility and authenticity is under question. A major problem almost all managers are facing with is that to what degree their earnings forecast is reliable to the capital market, how they are affected by different variables, and how authenticity can be augmented. This article empirically tries to investigate the effect of the factors reviewed by foreign scholars, on Tehran Stock Exchange. The research hypotheses are based on evaluating five factors including type of information (positive or negative), deviation in forecasting (managers credibility), forecast timing, size of the companies, and adjustment or non-adjustment of the forecasted information. Considering the volatility of the share price at the time of projected profit declared by the negative information (a lower forecasted earning) severely makes share price sensitive; unlike positive information which does no draw as much attention of shareholders and brokers as the negative information. Secondly, the size of the listed companies has a wider effect on the investors to accept the projected profit. Thirdly, the materialization of the past forecasts affects acceptance of the future forecasts as well. Fourth, medium-term forecasts values more reaction on share prices rather than the long-term ones. And finally adjustment of the forecasts has no effect on the upcoming forecasts. In short, this study tries to raise the awareness concerning how managers can link their projected future profits to the market.
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