Accounting and various aspects of finance
shokrollah khajavi; soraya weysihesar
Abstract
Dividend policy is one of the most important topics in financial literature. CEOs with a high level of authority are motivated to use dividends payout as a strategy to build a reputation in capital markets, aiming to obtain external financing on favorable terms. However, the expected net value of such ...
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Dividend policy is one of the most important topics in financial literature. CEOs with a high level of authority are motivated to use dividends payout as a strategy to build a reputation in capital markets, aiming to obtain external financing on favorable terms. However, the expected net value of such a reputation depends on the likelihood of external financing, which is associated with low profitability and high volatility of cash flows. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the effect of CEO authority on the dividends payout probability in the conditions of low profitability and high volatility of cash flow. In doing so, 128 companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange were examined from 2014 to 2021. The results show that the CEO authority has a negative and significant effect on the payment and increase of dividends. Furthermore, low profitability and high volatility of cash flow increase the negative effect of the CEO's authority on the increase of dividends. However, this factor does not have a significant moderating effect on the relationship between CEO authority and dividends payout. Additionally, financial limitations do not have a significant moderating effect on the relationship between CEO authority and payment and increase of dividends. IntroductionThe decision to pay dividends represents one of the most critical choices for managers. The theoretical foundation linking the CEO's behavior and the company's dividend payment is grounded in agency theory. Agency theory suggests that managers, who have control over the company's cash flows, might prioritize their own interests over distributing cash to shareholders. Paying dividends to shareholders diminishes the resources under managers' control, and consequently, reduces their power. Additionally, paying dividends heightens the likelihood of capital market scrutiny on the company, as it often leads to an increased probability of sourcing external financing for investment projects. Financing projects internally circumvents this oversight and the risk that funds may not be accessible or may only be available at high costs. Therefore, agency theory predicts that managers have incentives to portray financial weakness, thereby justifying their decisions not to pay or increase dividends. On the other hand, there are instances where a company's cash flow may be uncertain, such as when the company experiences low profitability and high volatility of cash flow. These two increase the probability of using external financing and are not influenced by powerful CEOs. Therefore, the uncertainty in cash flow overshadows the decisions related to dividends. This is attributed to the fact that powerful CEOs often have greater concerns regarding credit and reputation. Investors often view CEO power as indicative of a greater misalignment between managerial and shareholder interests, signaling weak internal governance and heightened risk of entrenchment or expropriation. Therefore, to provide funds to companies managed by powerful CEOs, investors demand higher returns, which results in an increase in the cost of external financing. Research indicates that powerful CEOs, akin to managers of firms with weak governance structures, encounter higher costs when raising external financing. Furthermore, when anticipating an increase in the need for external funds, these CEOs have a stronger incentive to mitigate reputational concerns by paying dividends. Therefore, powerful CEOs are more likely to pay dividends to invest in reputation, particularly in scenarios of lower profitability and higher cash flow volatility. Based on these considerations, the purpose of this research is to investigate the effect of CEO power on the probability of paying dividends under conditions of low profitability and high volatility of cash flow. Research Questions or HypothesisIn line with the research’s objective, this study seeks to answer the question: Does CEO power affect the probability of paying dividends? Also, do low profitability and high volatility of cash flow have a moderating effect on the relationship between CEO power and the probability of paying dividends? MethodsThe statistical population of this study comprises companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. The research hypotheses were tested on 128 companies over an eight-year period from 2014 to 2021, using multiple regression model and logistic regression. The data necessary for measuring the variables and testing the research hypotheses were primarily sourced from the Rahavard Novin software, audited financial statements, and other reports available on the companies’ websites, Codal and the Securities and Exchange Organization. ResultsThe results show that the power of the CEO has a negative and significant effect on the payment and increase of dividends. Additionally, conditions of low profitability and high volatility of cash flow further amplify the negative effect of the CEO power on the increase of dividends. However, these conditions do not have a significant moderating effect on the relationship between the CEO power and the payment of dividends. Similarly, financial constraints do not have a significant moderating effect on the relationship between the CEO power and the payment and increase of dividends. Discussion and ConclusionThe negative effect of the CEO power on the payment and increase of dividends is in line with agency theory. This theory posits that managers, who have control over the company’s cash flows, might prioritize their own interests over distributing cash to shareholders. Paying dividends to shareholders diminishes the resources under managers' control, and consequently, reduces their power. Additionally, paying dividends heightens the likelihood of capital market scrutiny on the company. Therefore, managers may prefer to present a picture of financial weakness, leading them to be less inclined to pay dividends. The research also revealed that while financial constraints, as well as the combined effect of low profitability and high volatility of cash flow, have a negative and significant relationship with the payment and increase of dividends, financial constraints do not significantly moderate the relationship between CEO power and the payment and increase of dividends. Furthermore, low profitability and high volatility of cash flow do not have a significant moderating effect on the relationship between CEO power and the payment of dividends. However, they do exacerbate the negative effect of CEO power on the increase of dividends. The findings align with the signaling theory of dividend policy. The Information content or signaling theory predicts that in a signaling equilibrium, where a reduction in dividends is associated with a decrease in shareholder wealth, managers are motivated to avoid such outcomes. Therefore, they choose a dividend policy where the declared dividend is lower than the expected dividend. This approach allows them to maintain consistent cash dividend even if subsequent cash flows turn out to be lower than expected. This consideration leads to the prediction that when future cash flow is highly volatile, the dividend payout ratio will be lower. In fact, this implies that when facing uncertainty in cash flow, companies prefer to maintain a low dividend ratio due to the dividend signaling property. They aim to avoid the subsequent losses of dividend cuts, as reducing dividends may lead to a significant drop in the company’s value. The absence of a significant impact from financial constraints and the interaction of low profitability and high volatility of cash flow on the decisions of powerful CEOs to pay dividends indicates that managers likely weigh other factors when determining dividends. Additionally, the need to maintain and build the reputation of powerful CEOs does not depend on paying dividends.
Accounting and various aspects of finance
Mehdi Nikravesh
Abstract
This study examines the effect of firms’ chief executive officers’ overconfidence on their firms’ profitability and the predictability of this profitability. The study tests hypotheses regarding the significant positive impact of chief executive officers' overconfidence on profitability ...
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This study examines the effect of firms’ chief executive officers’ overconfidence on their firms’ profitability and the predictability of this profitability. The study tests hypotheses regarding the significant positive impact of chief executive officers' overconfidence on profitability and its predictability. This is accomplished using the Generalized Method of Moments regression analyses on data from 257 CEOs of firms listed on the Tehran Securities Exchange over a sixteen-year period. The initial results indicate positive impacts of overconfidence on firms’ profitability and the predictability of future profitability. The robustness of the findings was tested by altering the profitability measures from return on assets (ROA) and return on equity (ROE) to Tobin's Q, as well as by changing the proxy for managerial overconfidence. These checks emphasize the role of overconfidence in the examined context. These findings support the positive roles of employing overconfident managers in the firms. By contributing to the limited body of literature on the positive effects of managers’ overconfidence, the findings can be used by investors, analysts, and other users of the results to consider overconfidence in their analyses of profitability and its predictability.Keywords: Managerial Overconfidence, Profitability, Predictability Of Future Profitability, Behavioral Approach IntroductionManagerial overconfidence, the individual tendency to be optimistic about the firm’s future and their power over it (Skala, 2008; Hribar and Yang, 2016), is one of the most significant biases studied in finance and accounting literature. Prior research has shown the negative role of this behavioral bias on firms’ finance and financial reporting features such as dividend payment (Deshmukh et al., 2013; Mashayekh & Behzadpur, 2014), finance policies (Malmendier & Tate, 2005; Malmendier & Tate, 2008), financial restatement (Presley & Abbott, 2013; Shekarkhah et al., 2019), and management earnings forecasts (Mehrani & Taheri, 2015; Hribar and Yang, 2016; Sheri Anaghiz et al., 2019). While numerous studies have focused on the negative impact of managerial overconfidence, there are relatively few that have explored the positive aspect of the bias. One of the positive impacts of overconfidence may include the improvement of firms’ profitability and its predictability (Kim et al., 2022).Because of their optimistic viewpoint regarding future firm performance, overconfident managers often invest in R&D and creative activities, potentially resulting in higher profits for their firms (Galasso & Simcoe, 2011; Hirshleifer et al., 2012; Xia et al., 2023). These activities may have long-term outcomes, including profitability. Consequently, the performance of firms managed by overconfident chief executive officers tends to be more positive compared to other firms. Moreover, due to the long-term investments made by overconfident CEOs, the future profitability of their firms is often higher compared to those managed by not-overconfident managers. Therefore, the predictability of future performance tends to be higher in firms that have overconfident managers (Kim et al., 2022). These theoretical predictions require empirical testing, and this paper conducts such an examination in an emerging market context, specifically the Tehran Securities Exchange.Several important reasons exist for studying the effects of firms' chief executive officers' overconfidence on their firms' profitability and the predictability of this profitability. First, this study heightens the understanding of economic decision-makers regarding the potential impacts of overconfidence, which is useful for perceiving its economic outcomes in firms. Second, it can reveal the role of bias in an emerging market. Third, this research employs dynamic panel data analyses to test the hypotheses, as some prior studies have shown a serial correlation between dependent variables, including profitability and predictability (McNamara & Duncan, 1995; Mashayekhi & Mennati, 2012; Kim et al., 2022), which has been overlooked in previous research concerning the role of overconfidence in profitability and its predictability. Fourth, as suggested by Kim et al (2022), there is less evidence about the positive impacts of overconfidence compared to its negative effects. This paper contributes to the literature by presenting evidence about the positive role of managerial overconfidence. Literature ReviewOverconfident managers usually possess a positive outlook on their abilities and they tend to forecast the future optimistically (Heaton, 2002; Hribar and Yang, 2016). This viewpoint often leads to overinvestment, especially in R&D and creative activities (Galasso & Simcoe, 2011; Hirshleifer et al., 2012). Therefore, there is a higher probability of achieving greater profitability in firms managed by overconfident managers. Based on this, the first hypothesis is developed as follows.H1: Managerial overconfidence has a significant positive impact on firms’ profitability.Overinvestment in firms led by overconfident CEOs is often long-term. By creating competitive advantages through these investments, these firms can experience continuous profits (Kim et al., 2022). Therefore, these profits can be more predictable than the profits of firms managed by non-overconfident managers. This expectation can be formulated into a hypothesis as follows.H2: Managerial overconfidence has a significant positive impact on the predictability of firms’ profitability. MethodologyThe study’s hypotheses were tested using Generalized Method of Moments regression analyses on data from 257 CEOs of firms listed on the Tehran Securities Exchange over a sixteen-year period (2007-2022). Initial analyses were conducted using the study’s main proxy for managerial overconfidence, as introduced by Sheri anaghiz et al. (2019). Return on Assets (ROA) and Return on Equity(ROE) are two main proxies for measuring profitability. Additional analyses, as the robustness checks, examined the hypotheses by changing the measure of overconfidence to overinvestment proxy introduced by Schrand & Zechman (2012) and changing the measures of profitability to Tobin’s Q. To assess predictability, I used the correlation between present and future profitability changes. I tested the hypotheses using two regression models that included control variable such as financial leverage, firm size, sales growth, earnings growth, growth opportunities, earnings volatility, discretionary accruals, and lagged dependent variables. ResultsThe primary results indicated positive impacts of overconfidence, as measured by the main proxy, on firms’ profitability and predictability of future profitability, as indicated by proxies such as Return on Assets and Return on Equity. The robustness checks, which involved changing the profitability measures from these proxies to Tobin’s Q, showed the significant effects of managerial overconfidence on profitability and its predictability. Further robustness checks, which involved changing the managerial overconfidence proxy to an overinvestment proxy, emphasized the role of overconfidence in the examined context. Overall, the findings support the hypotheses of the research. DiscussionThe results showed the significant role of CEOs’ overconfidence in generating profits and improving their predictability. These findings highlight the importance of the behavioral approach in explaining the positive effects of CEOs’ cognitive bias on organizational performance. These findings are consistent with previous studies by Hirshleifer et al. (2012), Zavertiaeva et al. (2018), Alberts (2018), and Kim et al. (2022), which also support the idea that employing overconfident CEOs can benefit firms. ConclusionThis paper highlights the significance of managerial overconfidence in shaping firms’ profitability and its predictability. The findings shed light on one of the most important reasons why overconfident managers are hired in firms and how their presence can impact the predictability of financial performance. These results can be valuable for investors when making decisions about firms and for analysts when analyzing both present and future financial performance. The main limitation of the paper is that the sample did not include the financial firms such as banks, insurance companies, and investment firms.AcknowledgmentsI thank my family for their continued support. Managerial overconfidence, the individual tendency to be optimistic about the firm’s future and their power over it (Skala, 2008; Hribar and Yang, 2016), is one of the most significant biases studied in finance and accounting literature. Prior research has shown the negative role of this behavioral bias on firms’ finance and financial reporting features such as dividend payment (Deshmukh et al., 2013; Mashayekh & Behzadpur, 2014), finance policies (Malmendier & Tate, 2005; Malmendier & Tate, 2008), financial restatement (Presley & Abbott, 2013; Shekarkhah et al., 2019), and management earnings forecasts (Mehrani & Taheri, 2015; Hribar and Yang, 2016; Sheri Anaghiz et al., 2019). While numerous studies have focused on the negative impact of managerial overconfidence, there are relatively few that have explored the positive aspect of the bias. One of the positive impacts of overconfidence may include the improvement of firms’ profitability and its predictability (Kim et al., 2022).
fateme rezazadeh karsalarei; mostafa sargolzaee
Abstract
In today's world, the banking industry plays a decisive role in the development and economic growth of countries due to its diverse financial and credit services, and can be considered as a driving force, an accelerator, and a balanced economy. Since the efficiency of each system is evaluated according ...
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In today's world, the banking industry plays a decisive role in the development and economic growth of countries due to its diverse financial and credit services, and can be considered as a driving force, an accelerator, and a balanced economy. Since the efficiency of each system is evaluated according to the efficiency of that system, the efficiency of the banking system is also measured through its return on equity holders and depositors. The more profitable the banks are, the more trustworthy the customers show than the banks, and they still keep their savings with the banks. The purpose of this paper is to examine the relation between the performance and the nature of banks' liquidity. To achieve this goal, data from 18 banks during 2009-2017 and using general momentary method (GMM) have been used. In this study, studied to calculate the liquidity index in the banking system, and emphasizing the structure of the balance sheet of the country's banking network. The results show the bank’s performance has a positive and significant effect with the creation of liquidity. Other results also show that the rate of economic growth, the ratio of capital to assets and the inflation rate have positive effects and Z-score has a negative effect on liquidity creation of banks.
Bakhtiar Ostadi; Parvin Tadrisi Pajou
Abstract
All financial institutions and banks have risks in their operations that have not been able to eliminate them, but there is the possibility of managing these risks. Therefore, financial institutions for continuity should be identify, control and reduce the risk of their life to do this, factors affecting ...
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All financial institutions and banks have risks in their operations that have not been able to eliminate them, but there is the possibility of managing these risks. Therefore, financial institutions for continuity should be identify, control and reduce the risk of their life to do this, factors affecting various risks will be very useful. In many of the financial institutions framework for managing risks to consider. In this paper, we assume the existence of a significant relationship between financial risk and financial ratios that can be validity by examining past research and then using canonical correlation analysis model to evaluate and calculate the relationship between financial risks and financial ratios presented. Canonical correlation analysis is an extension of multiple correlation for the relationship between the two sets of variables. Canonical analysis, linear combination of variables that are highly correlated with the second set of variables is found. Three financial risks include liquidity risk, credit and market using certain financial ratios and indicators have been defined and are considered as independent variables. As well as financial ratios, liquidity, leverage and profitability are dependent variables .To calculate risk and financial ratios of the information contained in the financial statements and the balance sheets of 10 banks Between 88 to 93 were used. Finally, it appears that liquidity risks have the greatest impact on financial ratios. After calculations, it is determined that liquidity risks have the most effect on the liquidity, leverage and profitability rations of bank with the effect values of 0.697, 0.644 and 0.624, respectively
Mohammadreza Mehrabanpour; Malihe Habibzade
Abstract
The intense competition prevailing in the world today and investors should be more cautious about their decision given the prevailing conditions. But this information alone is not useful, so it is necessary to use data mining techniques to analyze and interpret data so that more informative information ...
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The intense competition prevailing in the world today and investors should be more cautious about their decision given the prevailing conditions. But this information alone is not useful, so it is necessary to use data mining techniques to analyze and interpret data so that more informative information will be available to users. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to cluster and forecast the profitability of companies. For this purpose, Tehran Stock Exchange companies were considered as the statistical population of the research and 888 companies in the period of 1387-1395 were selected as the research sample. So, in the beginning after the initial preprocessing of the data, with Matlab and Clementine software, using SSE criteria and K-Means method, the companies were converted to 3 clusters and the result of these clustering were measured by the standard quality measures. Finally, by using the C5 decision tree, cluster analysis and variables affecting profitability were identified; so that from the 32 considered variables only 8 includes: Gross profit to total assets, sales to total assets, profit to equity, operating profit to net sales, accrued profit and loss to equity, net profit to net sales, total liabilities to total assets and current assets to total assets affect the profitability of companies. At last, by taking these variables into account, prediction of each cluster was done, and the accuracy of the predictions sequence was 86,34%, 88,15% and 68.81%
Mehdi Safari Grayeli; Alieh Balarastaghi
Abstract
This study examines the factors affecting the quality of corporate governance in listed companies in Tehran Stock Exchange. In order to achieve this goal a comprehensive index of 18 factors related to corporate governance, which are compatible with Iran's reporting environment as a measure of the quality ...
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This study examines the factors affecting the quality of corporate governance in listed companies in Tehran Stock Exchange. In order to achieve this goal a comprehensive index of 18 factors related to corporate governance, which are compatible with Iran's reporting environment as a measure of the quality of corporate governance, was prepared. By using a sample consists of 101 firms listed in Tehran stock exchange in the period of 1388 to 1392 and by taking advantage of multivariate regression techniques based on the pattern of the data grew, results showed that firm size, leverage and profitability have a significant positive effect on the quality of corporate governance. But firms' investment opportunities and quality of auditing don’t have a significant effect on the quality of corporate governance. Findings While filling the research gap in this area, Can be helpful for investors, securities and stock exchange organization, and other users of accounting information, In decision-making
M. Azizkhani; N. Khodadadi
Volume 6, Issue 24 , January 2009, , Pages 53-78
Abstract
This paper examines the effects of advertising expenditures on firm's intangible value in the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) listed companies. Using Q Tobin to estimate firm's intangible value and for a sample of 389 firm-year observation during 1380-1385, we find that there is a negative ...
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This paper examines the effects of advertising expenditures on firm's intangible value in the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) listed companies. Using Q Tobin to estimate firm's intangible value and for a sample of 389 firm-year observation during 1380-1385, we find that there is a negative association between firm's advertising expenditures and intangible value. We also find that there is no association between advertising expenditure, sales and profit.
M.H. Setayesh; M. Kazemnejad; M. zolfaghari
Volume 6, Issue 23 , October 2008, , Pages 43-65
Abstract
This study investigates the effects of working capital management on the profitability of the firms listed in Tehran Stock Exchange. Withthis regard, variables such as receivables collection period, inventory conversion period, accounts payable payment period, and cash conversion ...
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This study investigates the effects of working capital management on the profitability of the firms listed in Tehran Stock Exchange. Withthis regard, variables such as receivables collection period, inventory conversion period, accounts payable payment period, and cash conversion cycle are used for the measurement of working capital management, and Return on Assets (ROA) is used for the measurement of profitability of the firms. Moreover, Sales growth, Leverage, and Size are used as control variables. Using multiple regression and considering the results of investigations of 224 firms in the period from 1382 to 1386, we find that there is a negative significant correlation between receivables collection period, Inventory conversion period, and cash conversion cycle with the profitability of firms listed in Tehran Stock Exchange. No evidence confirming significant correlation between accounts payable payment period and profitability is found. Considering this, the negative significant correlation between profitability and Cash conversion cycle measuring the joint effects of receivables collection period, Inventory conversion period and Accounts payable payment period indicates that firms can increase their profitability and create value for their stockholders by appropriate management of working capital and decreasing Cash conversion cycle logically.
Hassan Ali Sinaei; Farzad Ahmadi
Volume 1, Issue 3 , October 2003, , Pages 95-125
Abstract
The aim of this research is to find any relationship between productivity and profitability indexes; the fact that whether productivity level movement affects the profit movement or not? And if there is any relationship between them, how is it?
To Study the subject , among population of private and ...
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The aim of this research is to find any relationship between productivity and profitability indexes; the fact that whether productivity level movement affects the profit movement or not? And if there is any relationship between them, how is it?
To Study the subject , among population of private and public companies of foodstuffs and drinkables groups - which had been accepted in Tehran stock exchange - a sample of 27 members was selected by random method; they were studied from 1375 (the beginning of financial year) to 1374 (the end of financial period).
In this research, profitability indexes determine the profitability of the firm unit. These indexes are consisting of sale return ratio, return on assets ratio and equities return ratio.
Necessary information collected from basic statements of affairs enclosure notes, meeting reports and documents of other companies in Tehran Stock exchange. Finally all of them were analyzed.
According to this information, productivity indexes of labor forces and capital - based on the value added approach – was determined as dependent variable.
In the next step, Profitability ratios of companies in the sample was determined as dependent variable and the relationship between dependent and independent variables was determined by statistical methods of coefficient of correlation.
