Mohammadreza Mehrabanpour; Malihe Habibzade
Abstract
The intense competition prevailing in the world today and investors should be more cautious about their decision given the prevailing conditions. But this information alone is not useful, so it is necessary to use data mining techniques to analyze and interpret data so that more informative information ...
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The intense competition prevailing in the world today and investors should be more cautious about their decision given the prevailing conditions. But this information alone is not useful, so it is necessary to use data mining techniques to analyze and interpret data so that more informative information will be available to users. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to cluster and forecast the profitability of companies. For this purpose, Tehran Stock Exchange companies were considered as the statistical population of the research and 888 companies in the period of 1387-1395 were selected as the research sample. So, in the beginning after the initial preprocessing of the data, with Matlab and Clementine software, using SSE criteria and K-Means method, the companies were converted to 3 clusters and the result of these clustering were measured by the standard quality measures. Finally, by using the C5 decision tree, cluster analysis and variables affecting profitability were identified; so that from the 32 considered variables only 8 includes: Gross profit to total assets, sales to total assets, profit to equity, operating profit to net sales, accrued profit and loss to equity, net profit to net sales, total liabilities to total assets and current assets to total assets affect the profitability of companies. At last, by taking these variables into account, prediction of each cluster was done, and the accuracy of the predictions sequence was 86,34%, 88,15% and 68.81%
Abstract
In the recent decades, in developing countries, economic growth has been so important. Existence of a well-function financing systems is crucial for investment in different parts of economy. Financing systems can facilitate countries economic growth, by concentrating, scarce resources and funds for large ...
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In the recent decades, in developing countries, economic growth has been so important. Existence of a well-function financing systems is crucial for investment in different parts of economy. Financing systems can facilitate countries economic growth, by concentrating, scarce resources and funds for large investments. Due to key role of banks on financing systems and significant effect of profitability on operation of them, studying about influencing factor on banks profitability has so importance. It’s worthwhile to note, greater profitability not only allows the bank to create funds to grant greater credits but also facilitates investment on risky environment for regulators of banks. Due to the provided explanation, in this research, influencing factors on banks profitability was investigated. It’s also worthwhile to note, Return on Equity (ROE) was used as the index of profitability. Sample of study encompasses 15 banks in the period of 2006-2015 for 10 years. Liner regression model with combination approach was used. Based on literature, influencing factors are divided in two groups: The first group encompasses bank-specific factors and the second one encompasses factors related to industry structure and macro-economic environment. Results indicated that assets structure, revenue diversification, economic growth and inflation have positive relation with bank profitability while capitalization, financial structure, size, bank competition and interest rate have negative relation with bank profitability.